AGP Executive Report

Cocoa Trade: Up to 40% of African smallholder cocoa farmers could lose access to the EU market if they cannot meet deforestation-tracking rules, industry group COCEFAAA warned. Farm mapping and traceability costs are major hurdles, particularly for Nigerian growers. Climate Readiness: South Africa is preparing for a potentially strong El Niño in the 2026/27 farming season, with grain-producing provinces among the most exposed. Officials say strong dam levels, soil moisture and grain stocks offer some protection. Food Prices: Lagos rice prices are mixed: a 50kg bag of some local brands has fallen to ₦55,000, while other varieties have risen amid scarcity and demand. Farmers say lower production costs and government support could help steady prices. Investment: Liberia is seeking more than $300 million for agriculture, including investment in processing, storage, mechanisation and reviving its Liberica coffee industry. Food Security: A new global hunger index finds sub-Saharan Africa has the highest regional score, as hunger worsens in dozens of countries worldwide. Irrigation: Kenya has launched a $1.1 million project to bring irrigation to 1,000 farmers in Ziwa.

Livestock Health: Namibia has begun vaccinating cattle in the Zambezi region after foot-and-mouth disease was detected at Kalala Island. Animal movement and sales are restricted as officials investigate the spread; the vaccination drive is expected to run through Oct. 26. El Niño Preparations: Tanzania has ordered timely delivery of seeds, fertiliser and extension services as farmers prepare for expected rains from October to January. Extension officers must report weekly so the government can track production and respond to risks. Food Imports: Nigeria’s wheat import bill now tops $3 billion a year, a food science institute says, despite the country being the world’s largest cassava producer. Irrigation: Kenya’s new $1.13 million Ziwa 2 project is set to bring 500 acres under irrigation and benefit 1,000 farmers, helping shift production beyond reliance on rainfall. Agricultural Investment: Benin secured $364.4 million in Islamic Development Bank co-financing for road upgrades and projects to improve farm productivity, food security and climate resilience.

Climate and Farming: Ethiopia says it aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions 74.3% by 2030, as erratic rain, drought and floods damage crops and livestock. Agribusiness Links: Ethiopia and Russia are exploring technology transfer and local production of farm machinery and inputs; Ethiopia exports coffee, fruit and vegetables, while Russia supplies fertiliser and sunflower oil. Farm Costs: Namibian farmers say high input and transport costs leave local maize at about N$7,000 a tonne, versus N$5,000 for imports from South Africa. Water Access: Uganda is looking to solar-powered irrigation as delayed and inadequate rains put smallholder harvests at risk, but affordability and programme delivery remain hurdles. Livestock Health: Nigeria’s health minister says livestock uses more antibiotics than human health, underscoring the need for better use, vaccination and biosecurity to curb antimicrobial resistance. Trade and Crops: Ghana and India have signed a five-year farm research pact aimed at reducing Ghana’s tomato imports, while dry weather and rising costs threaten South Africa’s wheat harvest.

Land Access: South Africa plans to release 2.5 million hectares of state land with title deeds to black farmers. President Cyril Ramaphosa says access must be backed by finance, training and markets. Crop Research: Ghana and India have signed a five-year agricultural research pact, starting with tomatoes, as Ghana seeks to reduce an import bill estimated above US$230 million a year. Poultry Trade: Namibia imported N$53.4 million in poultry products in August, more than it exported; most exports were re-exports, underscoring the country’s reliance on overseas suppliers. Fisheries: Nigeria and Norway plan to use satellite vessel tracking to detect illegal fishing and protect local fishers and marine resources. Food Security: Ukraine’s president warned that disruption to grain shipments could bring shortages to parts of Africa within months. Innovation: The FAO chief urged greater investment in technology and young people to address falling productivity and pressure on water and biodiversity.

South Africa’s Farm Growth: Agriculture has more than doubled since 1994, with exports reaching a record R270 billion in 2025. A Land Bank blended-finance scheme is helping young black farmers expand a commercial dairy farm, highlighting how finance can support jobs and rural growth. Wheat Outlook: South Africa’s record 17.5-million-tonne maize crop lifts the grain outlook, but wheat production is forecast to fall 5% to 1.8 million tonnes. The country may need about 2 million tonnes of imports as dry conditions and high costs squeeze growers. Heat and Water: Hotter, drier conditions are pushing South African spinach farmers to protect crops from heat stress and moisture loss. Experts say soil conservation helps, but lasting resilience depends on irrigation investment as El Niño risks build. Rice Investment: Ghana has secured an AfDB grant of $18.8 million to raise rice production and target self-sufficiency by 2028. Avocado Exports: Tanzania has surpassed its 2030 avocado export target four years early, with China among its key markets.

Farm Finance: Ethiopia expects its Agricultural Bank to begin operating within three months, easing access to loans for farmers and agribusinesses. Engineers are also urging investment in locally made machinery to reduce reliance on imports. Seeds & Resilience: Malawi has committed US$1 million to a seed plan, while new maps identify where southern African farmers can grow drought-tolerant Bambara groundnut. A study warns counterfeit seeds threaten farmers’ harvests and climate resilience. Rice Production: Ghana has secured an AfDB grant of US$18.8 million to boost rice output and target self-sufficiency by 2028. Export Markets: Tanzania has exceeded its 2030 avocado export target four years early, with China among its key markets. Climate & Food Costs: El Niño forecasts are prompting calls for earlier aid in the Horn of Africa, while global food prices have reached a four-year high, raising risks for import-dependent countries.

Export Growth: Tanzania’s avocado exports reached 52,000 tonnes in 2025/26, surpassing its 2030 target of 40,000 tonnes and earning $97.2 million. China is among the growing list of markets. Nutrition Funding: Nigeria’s 36 governors pledged a nationwide nutrition emergency and a new fund to support programmes in every local government, drawing lessons from Ethiopia. Animal Health: Namibia’s High Court cleared emergency construction of a veterinary fence on its South African border as foot-and-mouth disease threatens to spread. Rice Production: Ghana secured an $18.8 million AfDB grant to raise rice output and pursue self-sufficiency by 2028. Climate Preparedness: El Niño forecasts are prompting early aid planning in the Horn of Africa, where dry conditions threaten the main harvest.

Nutrition: Nigeria will adapt lessons from Ethiopia’s nutrition programmes to strengthen food systems and coordination across federal, state and local governments, Vice President Kashim Shettima said. Climate-Ready Crops: Kenyan scientists are using tissue culture to develop clean, resilient planting materials as farmers face erratic weather, drought and crop disease. Rice Investment: Ghana has secured an $18.8 million AfDB grant to boost rice production, with a goal of reaching self-sufficiency by 2028. Animal Health: South African dairy farmers warn foot-and-mouth disease may persist unless surveillance improves and farmers strengthen vaccination and biosecurity. Farm Costs: Recent fuel-price increases are adding pressure across South Africa’s economy, including the transport of farm inputs and food to market.**

Ghana Irrigation: A new 175-hectare water scheme in Ashanti is expected to support year-round rice farming for 220 farmers, as Ghana expands irrigation to strengthen food security. Rice Production: An $18.8 million AfDB grant will back Ghana’s rice sector, with a new project aiming to cut the country’s import bill by $500 million. Export Growth: Tanzania’s avocado exports have surpassed its 2030 target, reaching 52,000 tonnes and generating more than $97 million in earnings. Climate Risks: Forecasters warn of a strong El Niño, raising concerns for African harvests; Kenya has also forecast rainfall across 37 counties. Farm Inputs: A study warns counterfeit seeds threaten crop yields and climate resilience, underscoring the need for stronger seed systems. Livestock and Fisheries: Kenya’s president has proposed buffalo dairying to diversify milk supplies, while African countries are turning to aquaculture as wild fish stocks decline. Cocoa: Ghana’s cocoa regulator has raised $288 million to keep farmers selling amid a cash crunch in the world’s second-largest cocoa-producing country.

Dairy Diversification: Kenya’s President William Ruto wants to explore buffalo farming to help ease milk shortages, alongside sourcing improved camel breeds. Rice Investment: Ghana is set to receive an $18.8 million AfDB grant for rice production, part of a push to cut import dependence and reach self-sufficiency by 2028. Export Growth: Tanzania’s avocado exports have reached 52,000 tonnes, surpassing the country’s 2030 target; Kenya is also funding a specialty coffee laboratory for the Nairobi Coffee Exchange. Livestock Health: South Africa says regional cooperation with Namibia and Botswana is vital to contain foot-and-mouth disease, and has supplied 50,000 vaccine doses to neighboring countries this year. Seeds and Resilience: A study warns counterfeit seeds threaten African farmers’ harvests and climate resilience. Lake Chad Livelihoods: Fishers continue supplying food across the region despite insurgent threats and shrinking catches, while millions depend on the lake for farming, fishing and livestock.

Food Production: Nigeria’s Vice-President Kashim Shettima says Nigeria and Ethiopia can help feed Africa through cooperation on improved seeds, mechanisation and climate-smart farming, pointing to Ethiopia’s shift from wheat imports to production and exports. Ghana has secured an AfDB grant of $18.8 million for a rice project aimed at self-sufficiency by 2028 and cutting a $500 million import bill. Climate and Inputs: A new insurance scheme in northern Ghana will cover smallholders when erratic rain prevents seed germination. Meanwhile, warnings of a strong El Niño raise risks for southern Africa’s maize and bean harvests, and a study says counterfeit seeds threaten farmers’ crops and climate resilience. Farm Finance: Rwanda is testing a digital platform designed to help small farmers access loans within 48 hours. Aquaculture: Africa is turning to fish farming as wild stocks decline, with food security at stake. Farm Livelihoods: South African sugarcane growers are urging the government to scrap the sugar tax, arguing it has cost jobs and weakened the industry.

Drought Readiness: A study in Nigeria finds that satellite data combined with farmers’ reports can spot rice-crop drought damage missed by rainfall measures, offering a way to improve early warnings. Climate Risks: Forecasters expect a very strong El Niño, raising drought and harvest risks across Africa; African negotiators are urging COP31 to deliver climate finance and practical support for adaptation. Livestock: A new African genetics platform will use animal-performance data to help farmers and breeding programmes select more productive, resilient animals. Food Production: Ghana plans to use an US$18.8 million project to boost rice output and cut its import bill, while Kenya’s coffee farmers earned US$320 million in the 2025/26 season. Trade: South Africa is seeking to grow farm exports to the Middle East, which already bought about US$1.3 billion of its agricultural products in 2025.

Youth Agribusiness: Nigerian young entrepreneurs say limited access to finance, reliable markets and post-harvest facilities is holding back growth; they want patient loans, insurance and shared processing hubs. Rice Investment: Ghana has secured an $18.8 million AfDB grant for a project supporting its goal of rice self-sufficiency by 2028. Seed Security: The African Union is proposing a continent-wide seed and genetic resources bank to protect crop diversity and improve farmers’ access to affordable, climate-resilient seeds. Climate Resilience: A new $78 million UN-backed programme aims to restore more than 270,000 hectares across nine Great Green Wall countries and support five million people. Farm Costs: South Africa’s record fuel-price increases are adding pressure to agriculture and supply chains, with higher diesel costs raising expenses for farm machinery and freight. Agrifood Investment: Rwanda will present opportunities in value chains including tea, livestock, potatoes and avocados at an FAO investment forum in Rome this month.

India–Ghana Research: The countries signed a five-year agricultural research pact, starting with tomato development and plans for technology transfer and commercialisation. El Niño Risk: Southern African farmers face a severe test as a powerful El Niño threatens maize and bean harvests; researchers say climate shocks have cut regional legume yields by up to 78%. Livestock Health: Namibia has confirmed 127 foot-and-mouth disease cases across 15 farms, prompting tighter surveillance and movement controls near South Africa. Youth Innovation: A Ghana Senior High School team won the 2026 Youth Agri-Innovation Challenge with a solar dryer designed to reduce post-harvest losses. Seed Security: African Union leaders are urging sustained investment in research, breeding and seed access, with a focus on smallholders, women and young farmers. Export Growth: Kenya’s fruit export earnings reached US$44.2 million in June.

Foot-and-mouth disease response: Namibia’s President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah says government is stepping up FMD containment as confirmed cases rise to 127 across 15 farms, with surveillance teams and roadblocks aimed at protecting herds and restoring trade. Livestock biosecurity: Namibia also faces scrutiny over a disputed veterinary cordon fence procurement, while in the Philippines authorities intercepted 150 undocumented hogs to curb African swine fever spread. Food security under El Niño: Southern Madagascar is already bracing for worsening hunger as drought risk rises and aid cuts bite, with WFP reporting malnutrition pressures in famine-scarred areas. Cocoa and deforestation rules: A Global Witness analysis says the EU’s zero-deforestation law (EUDR) is already cutting deforestation-linked cocoa emissions and pushing “deforestation-free” claims higher. Agri livelihoods and value-addition: Olam Agri and partners launched a Kwara women and youth livelihood project to boost off-season incomes, while Kumasi Drinks turns cacao pulp into premium beverages to reduce waste and raise farmer earnings. Finance and resilience: Liberia’s central bank held its policy rate at 16% and raised dollar reserve requirements, and Afreximbank says the Dangote refinery in Kenya’s Lamu will help conserve foreign exchange reserves. Policy and growth outlook: The World Bank projects stronger Sub-Saharan Africa growth in 2026 but warns job creation and poverty reduction remain weak.

ASF Watch: Naujan in Oriental Mindoro has temporarily banned entry of live hogs (and also restricts frozen pork/pork products) to protect its swine industry from African Swine Fever, with checkpoints and stricter biosecurity urged. Ethiopia–Nigeria Cooperation: Nigeria’s Vice President Kashim Shettima arrives in Addis Ababa for a three-day visit focused on experience-sharing, including nutrition delivery and agricultural initiatives in Oromia, Mojo and Bishoftu. Ghana Water for Farming: Ghana’s Agriculture Minister broke ground for a 175-hectare Anunuso Water Conservation Scheme in Ashanti to support year-round farming for 220 people under the West Africa Food System Resilience push. FMD Trade Controls: Namibia’s FMD response is ramping up—testing over 27,000 animals and planning vaccination before gradually reopening auctions; the EU has suspended some meat imports from Namibia. El Niño Pressure: UNICEF warns the 2026-2027 El Niño could bring extreme wet/dry swings across the Greater Horn, raising risks to food, health and schooling. Livestock Value & Markets: South Africa’s record Ankole heifer sale highlights how genetics can drive cattle prices, not just meat or milk output. Food Systems & Climate Finance: UAE trade officials stress interconnected, resilient food systems, while analysts flag Africa’s huge adaptation finance gap and the role remittances can play in resilience.