AGP Executive Report

Climate Risk: Scientists warn “super El Niño” could push Earth into higher-risk territory, with a projected 44% rise in hot days and up to 451,000 extra heat-related deaths by early 2027—bad news for African farms and food systems. Animal Health: Namibia has suspended livestock movement after detecting foot-and-mouth disease in a disease-free zone, a move that could hit cross-border trade and herders’ incomes. Agribusiness & Finance: Access Bank and the International Trade Centre include Cameroon in a 3-year SME push to expand financing, skills and market access across 14 African countries. Water & Climate-Smart Farming: Egypt and the American University in Cairo launch a Nile-focused training-of-trainers programme to spread climate-smart agriculture and water management skills across Nile Basin countries. Trade & Investment: Egypt seeks deeper investment and intra-Africa trade beyond exports, while Ghana and China reaffirm cooperation on trade, industrialisation and development. Policy Shift: Uganda urges “anticipatory action” to move from disaster response to early, forecast-based interventions.

ASF & Meat Prices: Pork shortages in Vientiane after African Swine Fever-linked movement curbs are pushing up beef prices and squeezing restaurants and small food businesses. Climate Shock & Hunger: Uganda’s Karamoja faces a sharp rise in acute malnutrition as El Niño-linked dry spells worsen food insecurity, with Save the Children warning numbers could jump by 25% by October. Farm Inputs & Productivity: Germany’s K+S and DEG Impulse launch “Grow Eastern Africa” to boost climate-smart plant nutrition in Kenya and Uganda, using soil testing and tailored fertiliser advice for smallholders. Policy & Climate Finance: Kenya’s President Ruto convenes African heads of state in New York ahead of COP31, urging faster climate action and more adaptation finance. Trade Bottlenecks: Zimbabwe secures funding to modernise the Chirundu border post with Zambia, aiming to cut delays on a key route carrying fertiliser and agricultural goods. Food Security Risks: Reuters warns wheat buyers face higher costs as Black Sea grain export disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war keep supplies tight. Animal Health & Biosecurity: Reports also highlight rising swine fever pressure across regions, reinforcing the need for stronger pig biosecurity.

Climate & Food Security: ECOWAS warns climate change and insecurity could push West Africa’s internally displaced people to nearly 32m by 2050, with women and children making up about 80% of displacement. El Niño Farm Alerts: IGAD’s ICPAC forecasts wetter-than-normal conditions across parts of the Greater Horn, urging farmers and agro-dealers to intensify pest and disease surveillance and protect harvested crops. Horticulture Trade: Eastern Africa stakeholders in Nairobi launched the Horticulture Council of Eastern Africa (HoCEA) to boost cross-border trade, harmonise standards, and attract investment. Livestock Sustainability: A new FAO report says livestock systems supply one-third of the world’s protein and are shifting toward better use of agro-industrial by-products and marginal lands. Water & Sanitation Delivery: BudgIT finds 13 Kano WASH projects worth ₦2.51bn had not started, while some completed toilets and boreholes were locked up months after construction. Agribusiness Inputs & Markets: USGBC sent staff to Nigeria to train feed manufacturers on using US corn co-products like DDGS and CGM as Nigeria’s feed industry expands. Animal Welfare: South Africa’s ostrich farms face renewed scrutiny after an investigation alleged live plucking for luxury fashion without pain relief.

African Swine Fever Alert: Cebu’s Ginatilan in the Philippines reports its first ASF cases, triggering entry/exit bans and livestock trading suspensions in affected barangays. AfCFTA Jobs Push: Zimbabwe’s tripartite forum says AfCFTA must deliver decent work, better wages and finance for productive sectors, with banks’ lending to agriculture and manufacturing highlighted. COMESA Returns to Zimbabwe: COMESA is back in Zimbabwe for its 25th summit, with leaders urging industrialization and deeper regional integration to move beyond just opening markets. El Niño Threat to Food Systems: South Africa braces for an “unprecedented” El Niño, warning of heat and drought risks that could hit agriculture, health and disaster planning. Liberia Water Investment Planning: Liberia convenes stakeholders to shape a climate-resilient water investment plan aimed at unlocking funding and stronger coordination. Fertiliser Race: Aliko Dangote says his fertiliser business will be listed in 2028, targeting 12m tonnes of urea and expanding potash/phosphate to cut Africa’s import dependence. EU Warns on Ukraine Grain: The EU ambassador to South Korea urges an unconditional Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, warning Black Sea disruptions could raise food prices across Africa. Kenya Tea Farmers Under Pressure: Tea growers report low pay and rising costs, calling for faster support and reforms to protect livelihoods. West Africa Climate Insecurity: ECOWAS Parliament hears that climate shocks are driving displacement and rising insecurity, demanding stronger regional action. ASF Compliance for EU Markets: Namibia launches outreach to help communal cattle producers meet EU residency rules for FMD-free export access. Ghana Rural Poverty Story: A rural Ghanaian woman’s long walk to market shows how distance and informal farm incomes keep families trapped in hardship.

Agri-Industrial Deal Watch: South Africa’s Omnia Holdings is facing a proposed R21.8bn takeover by Solar SA, which would shift ownership and potentially delist Omnia from the JSE/A2X—raising fresh questions on local industrial control and market access. Power for Food Systems: Aliko Dangote says Dangote Group plans to invest over $10bn in Africa’s power sector in the next 3–4 years, arguing reliable electricity is the base for industrial growth and wider development. Animal Welfare in Supply Chains: A report alleges South African ostriches are plucked alive for luxury fashion brands, spotlighting cruelty risks in high-end feather sourcing. Climate, Water and Farm Risk: Egypt renewed its Nile case against Ethiopia’s dam, warning its water security depends on a narrow supply and leaving little room for upstream unilateral action—an issue with direct farm and food implications. Poultry Health: Kemin Biologics will host a 2026 Avian Influenza Summit focused on surveillance, risk management and vaccination as outbreaks threaten poultry and food security. Agrivoltaics Gains Ground: A solar-farm “agrivoltaics” project in South Africa is helping farmers grow vegetables alongside power generation, pointing to new ways to protect yields and incomes. Policy and Markets: Ghana’s World Cleanup Day push urges action beyond street sweeping, linking cleaner environments to water protection—relevant for agriculture and rural livelihoods.

Black Sea Food Shock: Attacks on Black Sea ports are disrupting grain shipments and raising fears of another global food supply shock, with Russia and Ukraine key to wheat, sunflower oil and corn trade. Kenya Coffee Premiums: Kiganda Coffee Estate becomes the first African farm to earn Rainforest Alliance Regenerative Agriculture Standard certification, aiming for higher-value export markets and better returns. Kenya Tree-Planting Accountability: Environmentalist Dr Isaac Kalua Green warns Kenya must track tree survival and growth, not just seedlings, to meet its 15 billion trees target by 2042. Kenya Rabies Risk: Growing free-roaming dog populations are linked to poor waste management and irresponsible ownership, with rabies vaccination urged as a key public health fix. Nigeria Road Losses: Nigerians report major delays and vehicle damage from bad roads and gridlock, with experts blaming infrastructure gaps and heavy dependence on road freight. Nigeria Fuel Infrastructure Push: Aliko Dangote plans a $3.5bn, 2,650km pipeline to supply Southern Africa, targeting bottlenecks that keep landlocked consumers paying more. Uganda Agriculture Coordination: Uganda moves to break silos in agriculture delivery under CAADP commitments, stressing markets, finance and infrastructure beyond the agriculture ministry. Kenya Youth Gap in Public Jobs: New findings show only 6.2% of Central Bank of Kenya staff are aged 21–30, highlighting generational imbalance in key institutions. South Africa Trade Protection: South Africa’s trade watchdog considers steep tariffs after finding merit in cases against dumped cement imports from Vietnam and Mozambique.

Climate & Food Security: A very strong El Niño is strengthening, with South Africa likely to see drier, hotter conditions into late 2026—an early stress test for food systems and livestock buffers. Weather Preparedness: Uganda’s Office of the Prime Minister has a costed El Niño response plan, but says it lacks funding to pre-position relief for floods and landslides. Wildlife & Agriculture Link: Tanzania’s Ngorongoro Conservation Area reports 10 lions dead in suspected poisoning, highlighting ongoing conflict between predators and nearby communities. Agribusiness & Jobs: Kenya’s William Ruto arrives in New York to push investment in energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, health, agriculture and tech, aiming to attract African and global capital. Finance for Development: Somalia convenes a Development Finance Forum in Mogadishu to shift from reconstruction to investment-led growth, with agriculture, livestock and fisheries flagged. Nile Water Politics: Egypt warns Ethiopia it won’t allow anyone to “control the key to life,” accusing Addis Ababa of blocking Nile talks. Capital Markets: Nigeria’s NGX CEO Temi Popoola argues Africa’s next capital-market push is better use of local savings, not just more foreign inflows.

Renewables Industrial Push: Egypt is signing up for a 2,000MW wind project in the Gulf of Suez and building a local wind-turbine manufacturing plant with China’s SANY—positioning the model as a lesson for Africa on scaling renewables beyond announcements. Climate Risk for Farmers: Namibia is warning of an El Niño-linked 2026/27 season with below-normal rains and hotter temperatures, urging early action on seeds, livestock feed and financing to avoid repeat drought losses. Agri Methane Capacity: UNEP’s International Methane Emissions Observatory is running webinars with Nigeria to strengthen measurement and management of methane from livestock, manure and rice—supporting Nigeria’s agriculture-focused climate plans. Fuel Cost Pressure on Food Systems: Nigeria’s debate on petrol prices is intensifying, with analysts warning that wage awards and palliatives won’t fix the long-term drivers of transport and food costs. Local Tech for Fish Farming: A Nigerian pharmacist built “Aquamanne,” an AI phone-linked sensor system to help fish farmers detect pond water problems early and cut mortality.

UNGA Push for Jobs and Agrifood: Kenya’s President William Ruto heads to New York for the 81st UN General Assembly, pitching partnerships in energy, infrastructure, manufacturing, health, agriculture and technology, including the planned Sh2.2 trillion East Africa Refinery in Lamu and an Africa-focused AI investment push. Agri-Investment Spotlight: Senegal’s palm oil sector is set for a major reset after a Dakar deal with Indonesia to develop 60,000 hectares of oil palm, aiming to cut import dependence and boost local output. Farm Safety and Consumer Trust: In Uganda’s Karamoja, consumers are questioning the safety of vegetables brought in from outside the region, as pesticide poisoning concerns rise and local buyers demand clearer production and chemical-use information. Livestock Support in Nigeria: Nigeria trained 200 sheep and goat farmers in Kano on better feeding, breeding, animal health and husbandry to raise productivity and livelihoods. Animal Health Alert: South Sudan’s first confirmed African swine fever case has triggered warnings against importing pork products, with tighter quarantine measures urged. Women and Youth Employment (Ghana): Ghana’s Social Investment Fund is urging stakeholders to support GWYESCO, a $71m programme targeting jobs and social cohesion for women and young people. Climate-Finance Pressure (Nigeria): ActionAid Nigeria warns that debt is crowding out climate action, hitting women, girls and farming communities hardest.

Post-harvest innovation: Nigeria’s NSPRI won the ISSCA 2026 Global Award for its parabolic-shaped solar dryer, aimed at cutting losses and improving shelf life for farmers and value-chain actors. Climate and water security: Kenya marked Mara Day with a push for joint Kenya–Tanzania action to protect the Mara River Basin, stressing upstream decisions affect downstream ecosystems, livestock, agriculture and tourism. Jobs and youth in agriculture: Ghana’s AfDB-backed GWYESCO programme (2026–2029) targets 22,000 jobs and skills training for women and youth, including green jobs and farming-linked opportunities. Trade finance for food systems: The World Bank says it mobilised a record $112bn in private capital for developing economies, with Kenya highlighted for weak job creation and low private investment. Fuel-price pressure: Nigeria’s Atiku Abubakar renewed calls for petrol and diesel price cuts, arguing high fuel costs are driving up transport, food and production costs. Regional agriculture resilience: Oyo State launched a €2.4m youth empowerment project using agriculture to support rural jobs and reintegration of returnee migrants. Food security risks: A super El Niño is expected to worsen drought and food insecurity in parts of Africa and beyond, raising costs and emergency needs. Agribusiness deal watch: Omnia’s R22bn takeover bid by Solar Industries signals a major shift in South Africa’s agriculture-linked fertiliser and mining chemicals landscape.

Fertiliser Push in Ghana: President Mahama says Sentuo plans to build a fertiliser plant in Ghana to support farmers, aiming to cut reliance on imports. El Niño Risk Management: Zanzibar warns residents in 188 shehias to relocate from high-risk areas ahead of heavy rains, stressing impacts on agriculture and livestock. Agri-Tech for Youth: Tanzania’s Iringa students showcase electronics and smart agriculture solutions after TME Education training. Green Agrifood Policy: FAO convenes an interregional dialogue on greening agrifood systems in Budapest, with Azerbaijan sharing plans for climate-resilient, digitally enabled agriculture. Soil Research Milestone (SA): Western Cape marks 100 years of Langgewens Research Farm, highlighting long-term soil and climate resilience trials. Debt vs Food Security (Africa): Experts warn Africa’s debt servicing is crowding out spending on healthcare, education and agriculture. Agri-Border Biosecurity: U.S. CBP in Detroit intercepts a first-in-nation giant scale insect from Cameroon, underscoring risks from exotic plant matter. EAC Trade Boost: East African Community trade rises 37% to $52.3bn, with mineral exports driving growth.

Women Farmers at UNGA: African women farmers are pushing for food and climate policies grounded in rights, ecological resilience and their lived realities, warning that land degradation, rising input costs and corporate seed influence are squeezing productivity and recovery after failed harvests. Kenya Credit Pressure: President William Ruto challenged banks to cut borrowing costs and widen access to credit for households and businesses, including farms and agribusiness, despite falling lending rates. Kenya School Meals via Agroecology: Kenya, Uganda and Malawi will pilot agroecology-based school and college meal systems under the SABESA project, linking institutions with smallholder farmers for healthier, locally sourced diets. Kenya Biological Agriculture Push: Absolute’s INERA has started commercial operations in Kenya with a portfolio of biological products aimed at improving nutrient use and crop resilience. Trade & Logistics Bottlenecks: East African horticulture stakeholders meet in Nairobi to tackle high logistics costs, weak cold chains, and border delays, with a new HoCEA platform set to coordinate advocacy. World Bank Funding Boost: The World Bank Group says it mobilised a record $112bn in private capital for developing economies in FY26, with Africa’s share rising sharply. Agri Exports Under Uncertainty (SA): South Africa’s Agoa extension offers relief for citrus exporters, but farmers and exporters warn eligibility reviews and tariff/phytosanitary issues still leave uncertainty. Security Warning: A debate is reignited over the rise of Iru Ekun Security Network, with concerns about private, ethnically framed forces growing beyond accountability.

Food Security & Nutrition: Nigeria’s child malnutrition crisis is worsening, with Atiku Abubakar citing stunting at 41.1% (19.2% severely) and 58.2% in the North-West, as food, transport and energy costs squeeze households. Agribusiness Policy: Nigeria unveiled a 10-year cashew roadmap (2025–2035) aiming for 1m tonnes annual production and 50% domestic processing by 2035, while ruling out an immediate raw-nut export ban. Agricultural Finance & Inclusion: NIRSAL appointed Simisola Ojumu as Executive Director for Technical, aiming to expand commercial lending into Nigeria’s agriculture value chains. Water & Climate Risk: South Africa’s Department of Water and Sanitation urged stronger water conservation as dam levels in parts of Mpumalanga and the Lowveld show declines amid looming El Niño. Livestock Health: Laos ordered nationwide African Swine Fever controls, including bans on pig/pork movement and imports, while Cambodia’s Champasak tightened ASF surveillance and quarantine steps. Trade & Digital Co-ops: Ghana reconstituted a Trade and Gender sub-committee to support women and youth in agribusiness, and DotCooperation partnered with Forus to roll out trusted .coop digital identities for African co-operatives. Investment Mobilisation: The World Bank Group said it mobilised a record $112bn in private capital in FY26, including a rise across Africa to $22bn.

US–South Africa Visa Standoff: South Africa’s ambassador to Washington, Roelf Meyer, says Pretoria will keep pushing for dialogue after the US announced visa curbs on officials accused of race-based discrimination and related actions. Food & Livestock Health: South Africa’s FMD response faces criticism as reports say no new animal samples have been sent to the Pirbright reference lab since January, raising fears over vaccine matching. Water & Climate Resilience: South Africa’s water challenge is shifting from building new supply to making systems reliable and financially sustainable, including reuse, groundwater and other sources. Agribusiness Finance: Kenya’s Equity Bank is accelerating lending that links farmers and SMEs to value addition and global markets. Ghana Shea Value Chain: Ghana’s World Shea Expo in Tamale spotlights women and youth-led processing, branding and investment, aiming to grow exports. Liberia Informal Fisheries Support: Liberia’s West Point fishmongers received first cash payments under a government social protection project backed by the World Bank and partners. Regional Trade Watch: The East African Community says China remains its biggest trade partner, with agriculture exports like coffee and spices still key. Humanitarian Alarm (Sudan): WFP warns acute hunger is worsening for millions in Sudan as funding shortages threaten to scale back aid.

World Bank leadership: Nobel laureate Michael Kremer has been named the World Bank’s next chief economist, bringing an Africa-focused track record in testing solutions that work for small farmers and health access. Climate-smart cocoa risk: A new study links intense downpours to cocoa yield losses across the tropics, warning that rain timing can hit flowering and early pod stages for millions of smallholders. Women using AI in farming: African women innovators are rolling out AI and smart tools to speed diagnosis and tackle farm and health challenges, with Uganda and Rwanda highlighted in recent showcases. Nigeria hunger pressure: AGRA reports 36.3 million Nigerians face crisis-level food insecurity, with staple prices rising and conflict plus weather disruptions worsening access. Ghana shea push: Ghana targets scaling shea nut output and boosting value addition through better processing, mechanised harvesting and logistics, aiming to lift the sector’s export and jobs impact. Kenya-Thailand farm tech training: Kenya and Thailand are training smallholders on climate-smart practices and farm machinery, including hands-on use of a Thai power tiller. US visa fight with SA: The US announced visa restrictions tied to alleged race-based discrimination and land seizures in South Africa, with Pretoria rejecting the claims and citing sovereignty. Zimbabwe dry outlook: Zimbabwe’s 2026/27 season is forecast to be drier than normal under El Niño, urging water conservation and early preparation.

BRICS and Global South Trade: As the 18th BRICS summit ends in New Delhi, members agreed on a broad joint declaration on governance, trade, finance, technology and development—while analysts warn consensus gets harder as the bloc expands and China’s influence grows. Liberia–US Investment Push: President Joseph Boakai met US lawmakers in Washington, stressing that a Liberia–Maryland MoU must move “from paper to practical action,” including cooperation across trade, education, workforce development and agriculture. Niger Delta Industrial Zones: WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala urged Niger Delta states to set up Special Economic Zones, improve execution, port efficiency and digital infrastructure, and cut trade costs to attract investors. South Africa Conservation & Food-Systems Angle: South Africa released a draft National Leopard Conservation Strategy for public comment, aiming for community-driven conservation that supports local livelihoods. Renewables With Manufacturing Lessons: Egypt’s wind push—pairing a 2,000MW project with local turbine manufacturing—offers a model for Africa’s renewable-energy push beyond announcements. Agriculture Finance & Risk: Kenya’s high borrowing is crowding out private infrastructure and business investment as pension funds favor safer state securities. Food Security Shock: WFP warns “Super El Niño” is deepening South Sudan’s hunger crisis. Ghana Cocoa Value Addition: Ghana’s Vice President says the country must stop exporting raw shea and is also pushing to double cocoa value addition and create jobs. Wildlife & Land Defenders: A new Global Witness report says 124 land and environmental defenders were killed in 2025, with land disputes driving most deaths.